South China Morning Post | 7 October 2025

How a dead US trade deal is pushing Africa further into China’s orbit

by Jevans Nyabiage

The apparent collapse of a 25-year tariff-free trade pact between the United States and Africa symbolises an American retreat, according to observers, who say the shift is paving the way for China to deepen its influence across the continent.

The Clinton-era African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) expired on September 30 after Congress failed to pass a renewal bill, leaving more than 6,000 African exports, such as apparel and textiles, subject to higher US tariffs.

The resulting economic uncertainty for businesses is expected to take a toll on countries such as Kenya, South Africa, Lesotho and Madagascar – whose textile and apparel industries rely heavily on the US market.

Under AGOA, Kenya has been able to produce clothing for major US brands such as Levi’s and Wrangler, allowing the East African country to compete more effectively with Asian exporters like Bangladesh and Vietnam. For the tiny southern African nation of Lesotho, 45 per cent of exports go to the US, with garments making 80 per cent of the shipments.

However, the US position has become unclear under the Trump administration. President Donald Trump has yet to publicly back the programme since returning to office in January, and his inclination to impose tariffs is at odds with such a trade deal.

A White House official has reportedly confirmed that the Trump administration supported a one-year extension. However, it is not clear how this would be feasible – no formal legislation has been introduced and a floor vote has not been scheduled to prevent the act from expiring.

Moreover, Washington’s recently introduced “reciprocal tariffs” may have effectively killed the act’s duty-free status. Lesotho’s textile industry in particular has been hit by a 15 per cent tariff that officials have warned would lead to factory closures.

Several other African countries face various new tariffs. Kenya, for instance, will be subject to a 10 per cent duty, while South Africa faces a 30 per cent reciprocal tariff. Some of these countries had attracted investors – particularly from China and India – who set up manufacturing plants to benefit from duty-free access to US markets under AGOA.

African leaders, including South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Kenyan President William Ruto, are lobbying Washington for a long-term extension of the trade deal.

Meanwhile, as Washington imposes tariffs, Beijing has sought to consolidate its influence by abolishing all import duties on African goods, except for those from eSwatini, the only African nation maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

AGOA was signed into law in May 2000 by then US president Bill Clinton. The aim was to encourage US-Africa trade and to counter China’s growing influence. Eligibility has shifted over the years, with countries such as Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea recently losing their AGOA status due to political instability and human rights violations.

Despite AGOA, China still overtook the US in 2009 to become the continent’s largest trade partner. The expiry of AGOA is seen as a major setback for US influence, especially as Beijing expands its reach by removing tariffs on African exports and bankrolling projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.

With Trump showing little interest in an extension, the AGOA lapse “creates fertile ground” for China to expand its influence, said Carlos Lopes, a professor at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance,

Lopes said the shift was not due to changes in African preferences, but rather because Beijing had been consistently offering easier market access and tangible investment commitments.

“With Chinese tariffs mostly removed for African exports, Beijing is presenting itself as a pragmatic partner willing to integrate African economies into its trade orbit with fewer political conditions,” Lopes said.

The contrast between Washington’s wavering and Beijing’s steady removal of barriers would reinforce the narrative that China was more dependable in responding to Africa’s industrial needs, he added.

Cameron Hudson, a former US official and senior associate with the Africa programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said AGOA’s expiration and the lack of a replacement were a repudiation of the Trump administration’s calls for “trade, not aid”.

“What he’s produced is a policy of ‘no trade, no aid’.”

Hudson said that with China already Africa’s largest trading partner by far, the expiry of AGOA was more “a symbol of the Trump administration’s lack of engagement or vision for how to reinvent Washington’s relationship with the world’s fastest growing region”.

While sectors like South Africa’s auto industry and textiles in Kenya and Lesotho remain vulnerable, Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the greater threat to textiles was the surge in Chinese exports, not US trade policy.

The expiration of AGOA would deal only a modest blow, Tuvey said in a recent report, but warned that it signalled further US disengagement from the region, leaving space for China to expand its influence.

Going forward, US-Africa relations would be bilateral and transactional, favouring countries rich in critical resources or those strategically important for security, Tuvey suggested. “But for others, many may now consider China to be a more reliable and predictable partner.”

Lopes said a failure to renew AGOA would send a troubling signal about Washington’s long-term reliability, undermining a reputation for dependability built over 25 years.

“It would be read not only as a setback for trade preferences but also as an indication that the US is retreating from a continent that has consistently called for deeper engagement beyond security partnerships,” Lopes said.

He added that a lack of American reciprocity to accommodate African nations in other collaborations would also be problematic. Kenya, for instance, spearheaded the UN-authorised Multinational Security Support mission in Haiti last year to combat gang violence. The deployment was originally proposed by the US.

According to Lopes, Washington risks being perceived as “transactional, inattentive to Africa’s development aspirations, and overly dominated by short-term domestic political calculations”.

Ultimately, he said, this would weaken America’s soft power edge as African nations reassess their global partnerships.