My Say: China’s CPTPP accession: Hidden hands blocking the Red Dragon?
The Edge Malaysia - 31 January 2025
My Say: China’s CPTPP accession: Hidden hands blocking the Red Dragon?
By Arividya Arimuthu
China’s aspiration to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has sparked significant global debate. For the world’s second largest economy and a nation often described as the world’s factory, this move seems a natural progression towards further economic integration and leadership in global trade. Yet, China’s accession faces significant obstacles, often attributed to geopolitical dynamics rather than purely economic considerations. The question arises: Are there hidden hands blocking China’s entry into the CPTPP? And if so, why?
The CPTPP reshapes the economic landscape across Asia-Pacific. Its predecessor, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), became defunct after the US withdrew in 2017. The remaining 11 member countries forged ahead, resulting in the CPTPP. Often referred to as the “gold standard” for free trade agreements, it covers a range of issues from trade in goods and services to intellectual property rights, government procurement, environmental standards and labour laws. For China, joining the CPTPP represents an opportunity to align with global trade standards and gain greater access to key markets in Asia, Oceania and the Americas. It would also signal China’s commitment to economic reforms and willingness to play by international rules.
However, the road to accession is fraught with challenges, seemingly rooted in geopolitics rather than economics. The US, despite its withdrawal from the TPPA, continues to exert significant influence over the bloc’s dynamics. Resistance from some CPTPP members, particularly those with strong ties to the US, can be seen as an extension of Washington’s strategic interests. By keeping China out, it is likely that these nations aim to prevent Beijing from gaining a stronger foothold in Asia-Pacific, maintaining a balance of power that favours the US and its allies. This geopolitical manoeuvring also raises concerns about the true motivations behind the opposition to China’s accession.
The primary argument against China’s entry into the CPTPP concerns its ability to meet the agreement’s strict standards on labour rights, environmental protection and intellectual property. Critics argue that China’s current practices fall short of these standards. This situation creates a paradox: without access to the CPTPP, China lacks motivation to meet these requirements; yet, to gain access, it must demonstrate compliance. Furthermore, such a demonstration can only occur if existing CPTPP members agree to establish an Accession Working Group (AWG) to review China’s legal and regulatory frameworks. Notably, despite China’s formal bid to join the CPTPP in September 2021, no AWG has been established thus far.
In contrast, when the UK sought to join the CPTPP, an AWG was promptly established to scrutinise its preparedness. Similarly, during the recent CPTPP Commission meeting on Nov 28, 2024, an AWG was established for Costa Rica, despite submitting its formal application in August 2022, almost a year after China. Granted, the accession process into the CPTPP need not be undertaken on a first-come, first-served basis, but from a geoeconomic perspective, China’s standing as a significant trade and investment partner for several CPTPP members does warrant a higher prioritisation of its application.
In China’s case, however, there appear to be additional obstacles, suggesting that China must satisfy certain conditions even before the AWG can be established. This discrepancy appears inequitable, particularly given that some original members were granted the flexibility to amend their domestic laws to align with CPTPP provisions even after signing the agreement.
Even the UK has been allowed time to complete domestic legal adjustments necessary to comply with CPTPP standards. The UK’s accession to the CPTPP officially concluded in July 2023, with the signing of the Accession Protocol. However, the CPTPP was only expected to take effect for the UK on Dec 15, 2024, almost 17 months after the signing of the Protocol. This timeline is based on the completion of the UK’s ratification in August 2024, along with the requirement that at least six existing CPTPP members finalise their ratification processes, which was also fulfilled on Aug 1, 2024. Both conditions were necessary for the agreement to enter into force for the UK.
This standard practice, allowing time for legal adjustments as well as the domestic ratification process, ensures that all members fully meet the agreement’s requirements before it takes effect. While it is appropriate to maintain rigorous standards for new members, these standards must be applied consistently and fairly across all applicants, including China. This consistency is vital for maintaining the agreement’s credibility and integrity, ensuring a fair and transparent process for all prospective members.
Regional dynamics further complicate the situation. Some key members of the CPTPP have expressed cautious optimism about China’s potential membership, highlighting the numerous opportunities such an inclusion would bring. However, concerns remain among some members about the possibility of China rewriting or reinterpreting the pact’s stringent rules to suit its interests. The positions of these CPTPP members are influenced by their economic and strategic interests, including their relationships with other global powers. While increased trade with China could offer significant economic benefits, political considerations — particularly related to national security and ideological differences — play a critical role in shaping their stances on China’s accession. This dual consideration of economic and geopolitical factors underscores the complex nature of decision-making within the CPTPP membership, particularly concerning accession matters.
China’s accession to the CPTPP is more than a question of trade; it is a test of the global community’s commitment to inclusive economic cooperation. The hidden hands that seek to block the Red Dragon’s entry into the CPTPP must reconsider their approach. In an increasingly interconnected world, isolationism and exclusionary practices benefit no one. Embracing China’s participation will not only bolster the CPTPP’s status as a leading force in global trade but also set a precedent for a more inclusive and cooperative global economic order, ensuring the benefits of economic integration are shared more broadly and equitably.